NBL1 South Men 2024... 9 Games Remaining

With only nine games and two days remaining in the NBL1 South Men's 2024 Regular Season, here's a preview of what all the potential outcomes of final ladder positions. 

Arguably the most impactful game, the Ballarat v. Eltham game will be a major decider in the number 2 to 4 spots.

Information regarding how the competition ladder is decided can be found at the bottom of the article.

Number 1 Spot

With last night's 117-75 win, the Mount Gambier have locked top spot with 17 wins. The Pioneers will host a final next Saturday night. No game result can change this.

Number 2 Spot

The Ballarat Miners and the Frankston Blues are the only two teams that can now finish in second spot, despite Sandringham’s ability to finish on an equal record of 15 – 7.

Here's how each team can earn second spot.

• Ballarat Miners: If Ballarat defeat Eltham tonight, they will claim their 16 win, and lock second place on the ladder. They will hold this outright and cannot be headed if they win.
• Frankston Blues: If Eltham defeat Ballarat, then two different head-to-head situations can occur, both giving Frankston second spot. Relevant head-to-head results:
  • • Sandringham def. Frankston (100-81)
    • Frankston def. Ballarat (94-69)
    • Ballarat def. Sandringham (99-85)
    • Frankston def. Sandringham (90-79)
  • If Sandringham lose to Hobart, Frankston and Ballarat will be tied on 15-wins each. Frankston hold the head to head lead in this case due to their 94-69 win in Round 12.
  • If Sandringham defeat Hobart this will create a three way tie between Frankston, Sandringham and Ballarat, forcing a mini ladder under the NBL1 South Rules. The games played between these three teams are uneven, with Frankston and Sandringham meeting twice during the season. This means the mini ladder is determined by Win %, whereby Frankston hold the advantage with a 2-1 record, of 66% Win%, Ballarat hold a 1-1 record 50% and Sandringham a 1-2 record 33%.

Number 3 Spot

Similar to Number 2 spot this spot is impacted by the Ballarat v. Eltham game and the Sandringham v. Hobart game. The Ballarat Miners, Frankston Blues and Sandringham Sabres can finish third. Here's how each team can finish third:

• Ballarat Miners: If Ballarat lose to Eltham, Frankston will take second spot, as per above. Ballarat will then take third spot regardless of the Sandringham v. Hobart game, due to either have 15 wins, or the head-to-head outcome. Ballarat def. Sandringham (99-85) in Round 13.
• Sandringham Sabres: If Ballarat defeat Eltham, Ballarat will take second spot with 16 wins. If Sandringham defeat Hobart, they will share 15 wins with Frankston, which they then take out the direct head-to-head based on the following games. 
• Sandringham def. Frankston (100-81)
• Frankston def. Sandringham (90-79)
• Sandringham have an 8 point head-to-head advantage
• Frankston Blues: If Ballarat defeat Eltham, Ballarat will take second spot with 16 wins. If Hobart defeat Sandringham, Frankston will have 15 wins and take third.

Number 4 Spot

Number 4 spot will be the last by-product of the Ballarat v. Eltham and the Sandringham v. Hobart games. Frankston, Sandringham, and Eltham could all potentially finish fourth, with 14 or 15 wins.

• Frankston Blues: If Ballarat defeat Eltham, and Sandringham defeat Hobart, Frankston will drop to fourth with 15 wins due to the head-to-head outcomes.
• Sandringham def. Frankston (100-81)
• Frankston def. Sandringham (90-79)
• Sandringham have an 8 point head-to-head advantage
• Sandringham Sabres: If Ballarat defeat Eltham, and Sandringham lose to Hobart, they will finish fourth with 14 wins.
• Eltham Wildcats: If Eltham defeat Ballarat and Hobart defeat Sandringham. A perfectly equal head-to-head situation between their two clashes Sandringham def. Eltham (90-85) then Eltham def. Sandringham (85-90) As per the NBL1 South By-Laws, after 'Higher game points difference of the games between them' then comes 'Higher number of game points scored in the games between them' then 'Higher game points difference of all games'. This may give Eltham fourth spot, if they can increase their points for-against percentage, which is currently not high enough.

Number 5 Spot - Sandringham to 5th outcome

As per above, as a by-product of the Number 4 Spot, Sandringham could finish fourth with 14 wins, if Eltham defeat Ballarat and Hobart defeat Sandringham, and Eltham increase their for-against percentage.

Number 5 to 8 Spots 

If Sandringham earns a top four spot, the remaining teams eligible for fifth to eighth spots: Eltham, Knox, Hobart, Dandenong, Nunawading, Keilor & Geelong United. The following games will decide fifth to eight spots. It will be determined by multliple head-to-head situations.

• Nunawading Spectres v. North-West Tasmania Thunder - Saturday 7:30pm
  • If Nunawading Spectres win this game this will be their 12th win, which may be enough to make finals. This will come down to head-to-head.
• Eltham Wildcats v. Ballarat Miners - Saturday 8:00pm
  • The impact of this game can be found above.
• Knox Raiders v. Keilor Thunder - Saturday 8:00pm
  • This game will give either team their 13th win, securing a top 8 spot. Their position will come down to head-to-head.
• Sandringham Sabres v. Hobart Chargers - Saturday 7:00pm
  • If Hobart win, they will earnt their 13th win of the season, securing a top 8 spot. Their position will come down to head-to-head.
• Diamond Valley Eagles v. Geelong United - Saturday 8:00pm
  • If Geelong United win this game this will be their 12th win, which may be enough to make finals. This will come down to head-to-head.
• Dandenong Rangers v. North-West Tasmania Thunder - Sunday 2:00pm
  • If Dandenong Rangers win this game this will be their 13th win, securing a top 8 spot. Their position will come down to head-to-head.

How is the competition ladder decided?

As per the league’s by-laws ‘6.9.2 End of Regular Season’ the competition’s ladder at the end of the regular season in order to determine a finals fixture, teams shall be placed in order of win/loss percentage.

If two (2) or more teams have the same win/loss percentage, final placings shall be determined by the head-to-head results in only those games played between the tied teams. If the two (2) or more teams remain tied, further criteria will be applied in the following order:

• Higher game points difference of the games between them;
• Higher number of game points scored in the games between them;
• Higher game points difference of all games;
• Higher number of game points scored in all games.
• If these criteria still cannot decide, a draw shall decide on the classification.

For example: i.e. Teams A & B have played 3 games and team C has only played 2 games but all have the same Win/Loss record for the season. This is caused because teams A & B were scheduled to play each other twice, where Team C was only scheduled to play Teams A & B once each. In the result that this eventuates and an even Head to Head cannot be calculated, the head to head results will revert to a % of wins in the games between these teams..

The process then repeated as many times as required to determine the eventual ladder. Each mini ladder or head-to-head calculation only determines one position. Again using the example above, if Team A was deemed the winner of the mini ladder of the three tied teams they would receive the highest available position. If that’s 8th then no further calculations will be required, however if that equals 7th or higher, then the process will start again for the next available position. Again in the tie of 3 teams where Team A has been successful in the mini ladder, the remaining two teams would be determined by a head to head result. If there are still more than 2 teams tied another mini ladder will be created and the next available position determined… and so on.

So remember…. One mini ladder does not determine all positions.